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酋长之后:海湾君主政体即将崩溃-After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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标题(title):After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies
酋长之后:海湾君主政体即将崩溃
作者(author):Christopher M. Davidson
出版社(publisher):Hurst
大小(size):2 MB (2226266 bytes)
格式(extension):pdf
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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.
Table of contents :
Cover......Page 1
Contents......Page 6
Preface and Acknowledgements......Page 8
Acronyms......Page 10
Introduction......Page 14
The revolutions that never came......Page 16
Explaining monarchical survival......Page 18
Further explanations......Page 25
1. State Formation and Economic Development......Page 30
Origins of the Gulf monarchies......Page 31
Britain and the early order......Page 35
Independence and state formation......Page 39
Economic development trajectories......Page 53
2. Explaining Survival—Domestic Matters......Page 62
Distributing wealth......Page 63
National elites......Page 71
Co-opting expatriates......Page 75
Cults of personality......Page 79
Heritage and history......Page 83
Co-opting religion......Page 85
Environmental credentials......Page 88
3. Explaining Survival—External Matters......Page 92
Development assistance and international charity......Page 94
Active neutrality: peacekeeping and mediation......Page 98
Soft power in the West: strategic investments and development assistance......Page 103
Soft power in the West: cultural institutions......Page 108
Soft power in the West: financing universities and manipulating research......Page 111
Soft power in the East: China and Japan......Page 117
4. Mounting Internal Pressures......Page 124
Resources, populations, and subsidies......Page 125
Voluntary unemployment......Page 130
Squandering wealth......Page 134
Poverty and real unemployment......Page 142
Discrimination, statelessness, and sectarianism......Page 147
Censorship and limiting expression......Page 158
5. Mounting External Pressures......Page 168
Welcoming foreigners and eroding legitimacy......Page 169
Western bases and armaments......Page 176
Antagonising Iran......Page 182
Israel: the unholy alliance......Page 188
Division and disunity......Page 192
Interference and coups d’état......Page 195
6. The Coming Collapse......Page 204
Evolving opposition......Page 206
Modernising forces......Page 209
Countering the Arab Spring: the wrong side of history......Page 214
Bahrain: rage and revolution......Page 218
Oman: protests and promises......Page 222
Saudi Arabia: the cracks appearing......Page 224
Kuwait: ‘The People’s Spring’......Page 229
United Arab Emirates: opposition emerges......Page 233
Qatar: champion or charlatan?......Page 239
Conclusion......Page 242
Postscript......Page 252
Notes......Page 258
Bibliography......Page 294
A......Page 302
B......Page 303
C......Page 304
E......Page 305
G......Page 306
I......Page 307
K......Page 308
M......Page 309
N......Page 310
P......Page 311
Q......Page 312
S......Page 313
U......Page 316
Z......Page 317

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